This page, created by a history teacher for history teachers,
provides information on how to use the third conditional, or counter-factuals as they are more commonly labelled in historical circles. By reading this page you will understand counter-factuals, how we use the third-condiTional to form them, and how you can utilise them in your cause-and-consequence essays in exams, coursework and homework.
This page can also be used by people with an interest in history, EFL students, and iGCSE students. As well as providing a guide to how you can use counter-factuals in your historical writing, we break down the grammar that is used to form them, as well as providing a bank of examples used by academic historians.
What is the third conditional and why is it useful for historians?
In the English language, third conditionals are used to describe the imaginary effects in the past of an action that you, or someone else, didn't take. For example: If I hadn't forgotten my water bottle, I wouldn't have been so thirsty. Alternatively, if I had forgotten to pick up my water bottle before I left the house, I wouldn't have been able to complete the race. Whilst on a more personal level we might employ the third conditional to talk about regrets, those who are interested in history can also employ it to imagine an alternative historical past:
- If Martin Luther King Jr. had lived longer, race relations in 20th century USA might have improved faster.
- If more women had been elected as world leaders in the 20th century, major conflicts might have been avoided.
We can use the third conditional - often called counterfactuals by history teachers and historians - to form questions to encourage debate in our classes. See below, for an example:
- If Germany, Japan, and Italy had won World War Two, how would the world have changed?
GCSE students can use counterfactual questions to judge how important a particular cause or event was. They can ask, “Would the event still have happened if this cause had not existed?”
For example, students could ask whether the Second World War would still have happened if Hitler had never become leader of Germany, or if he had died in the First World War. If the war probably would have happened anyway, this suggests that Hitler was less significant as a cause. If it probably would not have happened, this suggests that Hitler was more significant. This allows students to weigh up the importance of factors such as Hitler's personality, rhetorical skills and political ambitions in causing the war.
Examples of third conditional counterfactual use
Telling it like it wasn't - The Assassination of Kennedy
Grammar – If + noun + had (not) + been + past participle + would + have + past participle
Quote - "If John F. Kennedy had not been assassinated (past participle) in 1963, and had lived to be a two-term president, the war in Vietnam would have been (past participle) over by 1968."
Source - Catherine Gallagher, Pacific Coast Philology,Vol. 45 (2010), pp. 12.
Grammatical analysis - This simple grammar of this third conditional structure makes it easily replicable for GCSE students in their essays. For example, we might make a strong claim like: If Hitler had been assassinated in the bomb plot on his plane in 1943, WW2 would have ended much sooner. This is because there was no potential leader in Germany that had the same level of support among the German populace.
Background - At this point in history the slave trade was dominated by the Iberian Peninsula, with Portugal and Spain both purchasing slaves in Africa and transporting them to sugar plantations in their colonies in the New World. However, both countries were facing war and rivalry on the high seas, as well as rising criticism of the trade at home and from the Catholic Church.
Hugh M. Thomas - The Importance of William in the Norman Conquest
Look at the following passage, are you able to identify the use of the third conditional to make a counterfactual argument to show just how vital William was to the Norman invasion of England?
The Norman Conquest and its success were hardly inevitable but depended on the choices and decisions of individuals. The choice of many Normans and others to accompany William gave him the army he needed to capture and defend England. The decision of Harald Hardrada to invade may have tipped the balance against King Harold. Harolds own decisions before Hastings, though reasonable, led to his death as well as to the deaths of his brothers and many followers. But it was William, above all, who changed history in 1066 and the years that followed. Most leaders in his place would not even have tried to conquer England. Of those with equal daring, many would not have successfully assembled and launched an invasion force. A less able commander might have lost at Hastings or failed to defeat the rebels and their allies. Had William died sometime before 1066, it is almost certain that the Norman Conquest would never have happened.
Grammar - Had + noun + past participle + noun phrase + would never have + past participle
Quote - "Had William died sometime before 1066, it is almost certain that the Norman Conquest would never have happened."
Analysis - This is a clear and unambiguous use of an inverted third conditional that begins with the auxiliary had before the main subject (Had William...)and and ommission of 'if'. Although students at GCSE History level may find complicated grammatical analysis we can provide real-life examples to clear things up. For example: Had I finished my homework, I would never have been thrown out of the class.
Citation – Hugh M. Thomas, The Norman Conquest: England after William the Conqueror (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2007), p. 54.
Hugh M. Thomas - Conflict within the British Isles had the Norman Conquest not happened?
Grammar - noun + would + have + past participle + noun phrase + without + noun phrase
Quote - "Conflict would have almost certainly occurred (past participle) between English and Scottish rulers without the Norman Conquest."
Analysis - This third conditional structure, expressed with 'without' could be employed by GCSE students in a cause and effect essay. In this structure we immediately follow the noun - conflict in this example - with would have + past participle. We end the sentence with 'without + noun phrase. An example of this could be: Britain would not have entered WW1 without the treaty with Belgium.
Citation – Hugh M. Thomas, The Norman Conquest: England after William the Conqueror (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2007), p. 62.
Eric Hobsbawm imagining a world where pre-WW1 economies are restored
- Grammar – Adverb + noun phrase + might have been + past participle + if + noun phrase + had been + past participle
- Quote – Perhaps (adverb) the next war (noun phrase) might have been avoided (past participle), or at least postponed, if the pre-war economy (noun phrase) had been restored (past participle)again as a global system of prosperous growth and expansion.
- Where – Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes, P - 35
- Background – In his book Age of Extremes, Eric Hobsbawm considers the extent to which the economic troubles of the inter-war years contributed to the outbreak of the Second World War. Note the use of the adverb “perhaps” at the beginning of the sentence. Its use suggests that Hobsbawm is deliberately measured and cautious in his assessment of the economy as a factor in causing the Second World War. This sense of reservation is reinforced later in the sentence through the use of “might have been avoided.” The modal auxiliary “might” indicates possibility rather than certainty, while the third conditional construction allows Hobsbawm to consider an alternative historical outcome without claiming that it would definitely have occurred.'
Hugh Thomas - An imagined end to the Slave Trade in the early 17th Century
Grammar – Third conditional with inversion: “...could have + past participle... had + subject + past participle.
Quote - "Despite this official neglect of criticism of the new trade in black slaves, it is hard not to feel that there were by 1600 or so, enough hostile voices to have brought (past participle) the trade to an end within the next generation or so had it not been (inverted past participle) for the entry into the business of the Northern European Protestants, as will be discussed in the next chapter.(Hugh Thomas, The Slave Trade, 2006)
Source - Hugh Thomas, The Slave Trade, The History of the Transatlantic SLave Trade, Phoenix Publishing, p.148
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Grammatical analysis - We could simplify this conditional as follows: if the northern Protestants hadn't entered the trade the slave trade would probably have ended within a generation or two. Thomas uses a counterfactual to imagine what might have happened if the Northern European Protestants had not entered the slave trade. He suggests that the opposition which already existed by around 1600 might have been strong enough to bring the trade to an end. This shows how historians can use counterfactuals to consider the importance of particular causes or events.
Background - At this point in history the slave trade was dominated by the Iberian Peninsula, with Portugal and Spain both purchasing slaves in Africa and transporting them to sugar plantations in their colonies in the New World. However, both countries were facing war and rivalry on the high seas, as well as rising criticism of the trade at home and from the Catholic Church.